Climate and production outlook

Possible implications for agriculture:

• Most of the time, La Nina leads to sufficient rainfall to increase the levels of storage dams in the summer rainfall area. However, the likelihood of runoff water replenishing dam levels before December is low. Farmers should take this into account when doing crop planning.  
• Good rain in summer can stimulate the production area for summer crops, especially maize. This can have a negative impact on commodity prices, which farmers should bear in mind when doing financial planning for the season.
• Above-average rainfall increases the probability of an outbreak of pests and diseases. Immunity against animal diseases and parasites is low due to the recent droughts and consequent low levels of vaccination. It is therefore recommended that farmers start vaccinating early in the season against diseases that are traditionally a problem in their area.
• An important factor in summer crop production that was evident the past season, is the availability of soil moisture. Farmers must change their strategy from “farming with crops” to “farming with water”. Rainfall utilisation must be increased by restricting evaporation, increasing infiltration and keeping areas free of weeds.
• It is also paramount that farmers plan according to two different time scales. Long-term or strategic planning concentrates on the type of farming that is best suited to or sustainable in a specific area. Short-term or tactical planning is based on reigning and/or expected production conditions. Therefore, given the current conditions, if strategic planning indicates that maize production is viable in an area, then tactical planning should entail to increase the plant population or fertiliser application due to high levels of already stored soil moisture and a favourable rainfall outlook. The opposite would be vital when an El Nino phenomenon is expected.